Did Bitcoin Runes already peak?

Block 840,000, mined on April 19, 2024, was special for Bitcoin (BTC). In addition to marking the fourth halving of the world’s largest blockchain, it also signaled the launch of the Runes Protocol, currently the most popular for creating fungible tokens on Bitcoin.

While token creation is common on blockchains such as Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL), this practice is relatively new for Bitcoin, only becoming popular in 2023. Tokens on the Runes Protocol — launched in April — are even more recent.

Over the last 15 years, traditional media declared Bitcoin dead numerous times. Similarly, tokens created on the Runes Protocol are already considered dead by some critics.

Related: The Runes protocol will ignite a new season for Bitcoin after the halving

Looking at the daily trading volume of these assets, as well as the number of new entrants, you could get the impression that Runes have indeed already peaked. But considering the history of premature declarations about the end of Web3 assets, it’s worth questioning whether that is true.

Tokens trending on the Runes Protocol as of June 30, 2024. Source: CoinGecko

The first thing to consider is macro context. Since the Runes Protocol launched, Bitcoin has remained in a channel between roughly $60,000 and $70,000.

During this period, its dominance over all other crypto market assets — altcoins — has practically remained sovereign, showing a certain market caution in taking more risks.

This directly impacts interest in Runes standard tokens. Although they live within Bitcoin, they fall under the “altcoins” classification, which is not attracting wide interest from the market at the moment.

However, as the Roman emperor (and Stoic philosopher) Marcus Aurelius said, “Focus on what you can control, not what you cannot control.” It is essential to analyze exclusively how the Runes ecosystem is evolving.

Quality of Runes tokens

Nearly all of the tokens created on the Runes Protocol to date are meme coins. Besides memes being one of the major narratives of 2024, they are also easy and simple to create. Therefore, it was expected that Bitcoin’s blockchain would initially be…

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