Bitcoin’s 2028 halving price target is $435K, historical data suggests

The Bitcoin price (BTC) rallied approximately 650% since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020. If history repeats, Bitcoin could reach the $435,000 price level before the 2028 halving.

Is BTC price headed to $435,000 by the 2028 halving?

The Bitcoin price has risen around 658% since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020, according to TradingView data, and is currently trading around the $66,000 mark.

BTC/USD percentage increase, one-week chart. Source: TradingView

The 2024 Bitcoin halving will happen in less than three weeks. If historical chart patterns were to repeat, Bitcoin’s current $66,000 price would reach $434,280 per coin by the 2028 halving if it performs similarly to the current cycle.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies have seen diminishing returns throughout the years. Until the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin increased from having virtually no value to $12.50 — an over 12,400% increase. Bitcoin price jumped 5,200% to $650 by the 2016 halving and 1,200% to $8,500 by the 2020 halving.

Related: How high can Bitcoin go? New BTC price prediction sees cycle top at $180K

Thus, Bitcoin’s average price rallies fell by 45% each cycle to the current 658%. If this diminishing returns trend repeats, Bitcoin will deliver a 360% rally during the next cycle, resulting in a roughly $303,600 BTC price at the 2028 halving.

Bitcoin halving or ETFs having a bigger impact?

Bitcoin’s recent price surge is unrelated to the upcoming halving and mainly attributed to the inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), argues Hao Yang, head of financial products at Bybit, who told Cointelegraph:

“Considering [the] halving and price trends from a very rigorous quantitative point of view, there is no evidence supporting a positive correlation between the halving event and BTC price. But history can be interpreted in many different ways. I certainly hope for $435,000 by 2028 but won’t put too much into it.”

A six-figure BTC price appears even more possible if Bitcoin ETFs overtake gold ETFs, which is something that could happen in the next two years, according to a Feb. 26 research report from Bloomberg analyst…

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