Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in the shadow of a deepening geopolitical nightmare unfolding around Russia.
As retaliations for the Ukraine invasion grow, and the macroeconomic consequences grow with them, crypto by and large is struggling to keep up.
A curious paradox has presented itself this month: despite investors and those directly impacted by the war assumedly looking for a safe haven, that safe haven has broadly not been Bitcoin or even stablecoins.
Instead, stocks, which have taken a hit thanks to sanctions and their consequences, now form a major guide for how BTC/USD performs.
As such, the trend for Bitcoin remains down, all within the same familiar macro range, which has characterized all of 2022.
What could switch things up? Cointelegraph takes a look at a handful of factors worth keeping an eye on as the unprecedented European conflict plays out.
Macro forces signal volatile, “rough” week ahead
Historical precedent aside, it has become clear that the stock market does not “like” the current European hostilities.
Losses mounted last week, with global equities in total shedding $2.9 trillion of value. Add to that a warning that indices still seem “expensive” for the current environment and the midterm picture starts to look decidedly unappetizing.
It is not just what has already taken place which is rocking the boat — new sanctions against Russia are on the table, among them some serious issues which would only be felt on longer timeframes should they come to fruition.
Among them is a ban on Russian oil imports, a move set to upend the global status quo and trigger a seismic shift in how the economy fuels itself.
“If this happened. I would think there’d be a high probability of stocks limiting down immediately off the news,” popular trader and analyst Pentoshi reacted to news of the idea, which hit over the weekend.
Pentoshi had already sounded the alarm for stocks going forward, raising the concept of a Wall Street Crash type event triggering a modern-day counterpart of the Great Depression.
While an extreme scenario, there is nonetheless precious little to be bullish about while the conflict…