What History Tells Us About Nvidia Stock’s Moves Following Earnings Releases

Given Nvidia’s fantastic “earnings beat” record, my bet is it will surpass Wall Street’s estimates on Nov. 19.

However, an earnings beat doesn’t necessarily mean the stock price will rise following the release.

Long-term investors should focus on Nvidia’s quarterly results, guidance, and management’s comments on the earnings call, rather than getting overly hung up on the market’s reaction.

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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is slated to report its results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Oct. 26) on Wednesday, Nov. 19, after the market close.

As the dominant supplier of artificial intelligence (AI) chips and related technology, Nvidia has seen its quarterly reports become the most anticipated of every earnings season for the past few years. Beyond being the largest AI company, Nvidia is also the most valuable company on the S&P 500 index. So it is considered a bellwether, or indicator, for the entire stock market, as well as the AI space.

This upcoming release comes at a particularly interesting time. Last week, Nvidia stock declined 7.2% on news that well-known hedge fund manager Michael Burry made big bearish bets (through buying put options) on Nvidia stock and fellow popular AI stock Palantir in the third quarter.

Burry’s bet against Nvidia will probably be a losing bet, in my opinion. Nvidia is performing fantastically — and is the company most responsible for enabling the AI revolution.

As in the last quarter, Nvidia’s Q3 results will not include any H20 data center AI chip sales to China. Given recent comments by CEO Jensen Huang, investors should not expect any changes on the China front.

Image source: Getty Images.

Metric

Q3 Fiscal 2025 Result

Nvidia’s Q3 Fiscal 2026 Guidance

Nvidia’s Projected Growth

Wall Street’s Q3 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate

Wall Street’s Projected Growth

Revenue

$35.08 billion

$54 billion

54%

$54.83 billion

56%

Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share (EPS)

$0.81

$1.22*

51%

$1.25

54%

Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance….

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