Key takeaways:
Bitcoin price charts from 2021 hint at a crash toward $60,000 if history repeats.
Bulls see $104,000 support holding, with targets at $140,000 or higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped more than 12.75% from its record high above $124,500, splitting traders into two camps.
One sees it as a routine bull market correction, while others warn that a new bear cycle has begun. But which side has the better argument?
Bitcoin 2021 chart fractals hint at $60,000
According to multiple analyses, Bitcoin could repeat the price trajectory that foreshadowed the 2021 market top.
Crypto analyst Reflection points out that in 2021, BTC staged a sharp rally to record highs, followed by a blow-off top, a correction into mid-range support, and finally a failed retest of resistance.
That sequence of moves triggered a 50%-plus crash, sending Bitcoin from nearly $69,000 to around $32,000 in just weeks.
BTC/USD two-day price chart. Source: Reflection/TradingView
Bitcoin’s 2025 structure is now echoing that same four-step process, with BTC hovering just below a similar distribution zone that marked the bearish reversal in 2021.
The cryptocurrency risks a similar rejection if the fractal holds.
Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, Bitcoin has broken below a rising wedge, a bearish formation of higher highs and lows within narrowing trendlines.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
The breakdown raises the risk of a decline to the $60,000–$62,000 zone, which overlaps with the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; blue wave). Some analysts even predict the BTC price will drop toward $50,000.
Notably, a similar wedge collapse in 2021 triggered a 55% correction down to the same 200-week EMA support.
Bitcoin may recover to over $124,500
Not everyone anticipates broader declines in the Bitcoin market, however.
Trader Jesse highlights a cluster formed by BTC’s 200-day simple and exponential moving averages serving as support during bull market dips, saying that the crypto may form a “mid-term bottom” there.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: Jesse/TradingView
As of Friday, this EMA price floor was around the…
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