Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s $4.3 billion options expiry favors neutral-to-bullish bets, with a $175 million edge if prices stay above $113,000.
Macroeconomic uncertainty, including weak US employment data and AI sector doubts, could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $114,000 mark on Thursday after a positive earnings report from Oracle Corporation (ORCL), a major player in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The move pushed Bitcoin to its highest price in more than two weeks, raising expectations for stronger bullish momentum ahead of the $4.3 billion BTC options expiry on Friday.
Aggregate BTC Sept. 12 options open interest, USD. Source: laevitas.ch
Put (sell) options dominate this week’s expiry, representing $2.35 billion in open interest compared with $1.93 billion in call (buy) contracts. Still, call options have gained an edge after Bitcoin’s price moved away from the $107,500 lows seen earlier in September. The current imbalance favoring put options is unusual in a market where crypto traders are typically optimistic.
Deribit remains the clear market leader, holding 75% of Bitcoin’s weekly expiry share, followed by OKX at 13%. Bybit and Binance account for roughly 5% each. Given Deribit’s dominance, its positioning offers the best signal to gauge whether Bitcoin can push beyond $120,000 in the short term.
BTC Sept. 12 options open interest at Deribit, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch
Bearish or neutral positions appear poorly placed, as fewer than $125 million in put open interest has been set at $114,000 or higher on Deribit. In contrast, more than $300 million in call contracts would be activated if Bitcoin sustains levels above $113,000 through Friday’s expiry. This $175 million advantage for call buyers could provide the fuel needed for Bitcoin to extend its bullish trend.
US job market concerns and AI sustainability could limit Bitcoin’s upside
Oracle’s 36% share price surge on Wednesday was driven by expectations of stronger earnings after the company announced a $455 billion increase in future contracts. Later that day, The Wall Street Journal reported that…
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