Key takeaways:
Bitcoin options skew and futures funding rates highlight persistent caution, despite BTC defending the $110,000 support level.
spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and Strategy’s S&P 500 index negative decision continue weighing on trader sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $112,000 on Monday, pulling away from the $108,000 level seen the previous week. The advance, however, has not been strong enough to restore confidence, according to BTC derivatives metrics. Traders are now trying to determine what is preventing sentiment from improving and whether Bitcoin has the momentum to push past $120,000.
Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
The BTC options delta skew currently stands at 9%, meaning put (sell) options are priced at a premium compared to equivalent call (buy) instruments. This typically signals risk aversion, though it may simply reflect last week’s trading conditions rather than a clear expectation of a sharp decline. A genuine surge in demand for downside protection would be evident in the options put-to-call ratio.
Options premium put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
On Monday, demand for put options jumped, reversing the trend of the prior two sessions. The data points to a stronger appetite for neutral-to-bearish strategies, suggesting traders remain cautious about a potential drop below $108,000.
Some of this lack of enthusiasm stems from Bitcoin’s inability to mirror the fresh all-time highs in both the S&P 500 and gold. Weaker-than-expected labor market figures in the United States reinforced expectations of monetary easing.
Implied March 2026 Fed Funds interest rate. Source: CME Fedwatch tool
Traders now assign a 73% probability that interest rates will fall to 3.50% or lower by March 2026, up from 41% just one month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs face outflows as corporate Ether reserves gain traction
Adding to the caution, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $383 million in net outflows between Thursday and Friday. The withdrawals likely unnerved investors even though Bitcoin successfully held the $110,000 support….
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