A key Bitcoin bull signal flashed for the first time in nearly a year, signaling a potential price breakout.
The global liquidity model’s bullish Bitcoin (BTC) signal was shared by Jamie Coutts, a chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.
Coutts expects Bitcoin to go “much higher,” based on this signal, he wrote in an Aug. 15 X post:
“My composite global liquidity momentum model (MSI), has provided the first Bullish regime signal since November 2023. Recall that Bitcoin rallied 75% from Nov to April before the regime flipped Bearish”
Bitcoin trend and global liquidity regime. Source: Jamie Coutts
This same bullish signal preceded a 19-fold Bitcoin rally in the 2017 cycle and a six-gold rally in the 2020 cycle, according to Coutts.
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Can Bitcoin price double to around $120,000?
The bullish signal could translate into a two to three-fold increase in Bitcoin price, according to Coutts’ estimates.
However, this is largely dependent on the performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and overall global liquidity, explained Coutts:
“For BTC to meet this target, the DXY would need to be well below 101, prompted by ongoing central bank injections. This would push global M2 well over $120T this cycle.”
However, Bitcoin prices may face headwinds in the short term. Over $1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on Aug. 16 at 8:00 am UTC unless Bitcoin can stage a recovery above $60,000.
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Growing M2 money supply could bolster Bitcoin price
The continually expanding global M2 money supply could help Bitcoin break out above $60,000.
During the past month, the Bank of Japan added $400 million while the People’s Bank of China added $97 billion worth of credit to the global money base, which expanded by $1.2 trillion, according to Coutts.
This trend is likely to continue due to the economics of the fractional reserve system, added Coutts:
“This is the natural state in a credit-based fractional reserve system. The money supply must continually expand to support the…..
